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How many copies did Headbangers in Holiday Hell sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
from 67 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Headbangers in Holiday Hell and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Headbangers in Holiday Hell's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 117k–184k
best case 206k (Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok)
Games like Headbangers in Holiday Hell

A typical game among these

≈ 117k–184k copies

≈ $510k–$701k after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok at ≈ 157k–256k copies, ≈ $432k–$1.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 244 reviews in their first month; the range was 34 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (5 of 8) and Arena Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Bullet Hell, priced around $10.
When they shipped
6 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.8x vs typical
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Boomer ShooterArcade

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.