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How many copies did Spectacular Sparky sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$20k–$53k after Steam's cut $36k–$82k before Steam's cut
from 193 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Spectacular Sparky and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Spectacular Sparky's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.9M–4.6M
best case 47.6M (Geometry Dash)
Games like Spectacular Sparky

A typical game among these

≈ 3.9M–4.6M copies

≈ $26.4M–$30.6M after Steam's cut

from ~72k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Geometry Dash at ≈ 36.2M–58.9M copies, ≈ $49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (6 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Metroidvania, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Difficult; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Broforce
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
61k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AmericaAction
BattleBlock Theater®
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.8M–$45.3M after Steam's cut $30.6M–$69.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
73k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
184k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
7.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.4M–$44.1M after Steam's cut $29.8M–$67.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
72k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AtmosphericGreat Soundtrack
Cuphead
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.4M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$41.9M–$112.7M after Steam's cut $76.2M–$173.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DifficultCartoon
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Geometry Dash
2014
Est. copies
≈ 36.2M–58.9M
9.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$49.7M–$133.7M after Steam's cut $90.4M–$205.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
647k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultMusic

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