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How big is Obreno: Chapter One?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 422–685
from 17 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Obreno: Chapter One and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Obreno: Chapter One's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6k–8k
best case 1.1M (Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk)
Games like Obreno: Chapter One

A typical game among these

≈ 6k–8k copies

≈ $4k–$6k after Steam's cut

from ~177 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk at ≈ 853k–1.4M copies, ≈ $349k–$939k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 50 reviews in their first month; the range was 16 to 210.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Interactive Fiction (7 of 8) and Experimental (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Experimental + Interactive Fiction, priced around $2. The breakout hits carry Emotional + Game Development + Pixel Graphics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Eschaton
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
$1.99
169 reviews
Very Positive
SurrealConspiracy
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk
2020
Est. copies
≈ 853k–1.4M
194x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$349k–$939k after Steam's cut $635k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$1.49
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Press Any Button
2021
Est. copies
≈ 95k–155k
22x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$52k–$140k after Steam's cut $95k–$216k before Steam's cut
$1.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
EmotionalStory Rich
Sunflower Pie
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
144 reviews
Very Positive
EMPORIUM
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before Steam's cut
$1.99
141 reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualIndie
My Dream is a Lost Memory
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before Steam's cut
$0.99
245 reviews
Very Positive
CasualInteractive Fiction
Schastye
2020
Est. copies
≈ 12k–20k
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
$0.99
490 reviews
Mixed
ExperimentalAdventure
Some Goodbyes We Made
2024
Est. copies
≈ 5k–7k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $11k–$26k before Steam's cut
$4.99
185 reviews
Very Positive
Story RichAdventure

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