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How big is SpermDash精疲力尽?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 3k–4k
from 104 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid SpermDash精疲力尽 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SpermDash精疲力尽's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.1M–4.9M
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like SpermDash精疲力尽

A typical game among these

≈ 3.1M–4.9M copies

≈ $17.0M–$95.8M after Steam's cut

from ~115k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Parkour (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.5M–15.4M copies, ≈ $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 77k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Parkour (3 of 8) and Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Crab Game
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
151k reviews
Very Positive
Psychological HorrorMultiplayer
Gorilla Tag
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.7M–$31.6M after Steam's cut $21.4M–$48.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
86k reviews
Very Positive
BandRoll
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$1.99
104 reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessRhythm
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.0M–$158.6M after Steam's cut $107.3M–$244.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldSuperhero
Ultimate Chicken Horse
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
54k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerParty
Sphere Game Epic
2021
Est. copies
≈ 620–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$169–$454 after Steam's cut $307–$699 before Steam's cut
$0.99
25 reviews
Mostly Positive
3D PlatformerDifficult
Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.8M after Steam's cut $11.4M–$25.8M before Steam's cut
$7.99
83k reviews
Very Positive

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