How much revenue did Moonglow Bay make?

$129k–$347k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Moonglow Bay sell?

Q: How many copies did Moonglow Bay sell?

19k to 31k copies, based on its 757 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 19k–31k; $129k–$347k after Steam's cut $235k–$534k before Steam's cut; from 757 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Moonglow Bay and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Moonglow Bay's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–10k

best case 19k (Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration)

Games like Moonglow Bay

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–10k copies

≈ $5k–$25k after Steam's cut

from ~133 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is 1980s (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration at ≈ 14k–24k copies, ≈ $159k–$428k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 59 reviews in their first month; the range was 6 to 106.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share 1980s (4 of 8) and Voxel (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with 1980s + Shoot 'Em Up, priced around $40.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Carrier Command 2 VR 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue Free	Free	134 reviews Mixed	SimulationStrategy
In The Shadows 2017	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $9k–$24k after Steam's cut $16k–$37k before Steam's cut	$15.99	59 reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsPuzzle-Platformer
Islet Online 2019	Est. copies ≈ 15k–25k 4.1x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue Free	Free	538 reviews Mostly Positive	Massively MultiplayerIndie
F.I.S.H. 2021	Est. copies ≈ 5k–8k 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $11k–$30k after Steam's cut $21k–$47k before Steam's cut	$7.99	208 reviews Very Positive	RhythmPixel Graphics
The Kids We Were 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $14k–$38k after Steam's cut $26k–$59k before Steam's cut	$15.99	131 reviews Very Positive	IndieVoxel
Radical Road 2023	Est. copies ≈ 347–564 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $190–$511 after Steam's cut $345–$786 before Steam's cut	$1.99	14 reviews Positive	ArcadeIsometric
Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration 2022	Est. copies ≈ 14k–24k 4.4x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $159k–$428k after Steam's cut $290k–$659k before Steam's cut	$39.99	584 reviews Very Positive	Retro1980s
Blue Fish Yokohama 2023	Est. copies ≈ 322–524 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $530–$1k after Steam's cut $964–$2k before Steam's cut	$5.99	13 reviews Positive	SingleplayerVoxel