How much revenue did Paint Girl make?

$11k–$29k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Paint Girl sell?

Q: How many copies did Paint Girl sell?

20k to 32k copies, based on its 787 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 20k–32k; $11k–$29k after Steam's cut $19k–$44k before Steam's cut; from 787 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Paint Girl and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paint Girl's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.0M–10.4M

best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)

Games like Paint Girl

A typical game among these

≈ 4.0M–10.4M copies

≈ $5.3M–$26.9M after Steam's cut

from ~136k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 27k reviews in their first month; the range was 7k to 64k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Anime (6 of 8) and Sexual Content (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Mirror 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut	$1.99	84k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Sexual ContentNudity
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.5M–12.2M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	303k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M 7.5x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Muse Dash 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut	$2.99	122k reviews Very Positive	MusicRhythm
Helltaker 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	128k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Free to PlayCute
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.3M before Steam's cut	$15.99	58k reviews Very Positive	Psychological HorrorAnime
VRChat 2017	Est. copies ≈ 9.3M–15.1M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	269k reviews Mostly Positive	VRFree to Play
MiSide 2024	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $14.6M–$39.2M after Steam's cut $26.5M–$60.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	143k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Psychological HorrorCute