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How many copies did Mission Z sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 521–846
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
from 21 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mission Z and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mission Z's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.9M–24.5M
best case 78.3M (Euro Truck Simulator 2)
Games like Mission Z

A typical game among these

≈ 7.9M–24.5M copies

≈ $122.6M–$284.2M after Steam's cut

from ~296k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Euro Truck Simulator 2 at ≈ 59.7M–97.0M copies, ≈ $328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 76 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 143k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Realistic (8 of 8) and Shooter (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Driving + Transportation, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Infiltration: Alone in Combat
2021
Est. copies
≈ 99–161
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$54–$146 after Steam's cut $99–$224 before Steam's cut
$1.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
ActionAdventure
Ready or Not
2023
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–14.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$118.4M–$318.4M after Steam's cut $215.3M–$489.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
347k reviews
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TacticalRealistic
Euro Truck Simulator 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 59.7M–97.0M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
944k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
Combat Troops VR
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
$11.99
41 reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionSimulation
Arma 3
2013
Est. copies
≈ 18.7M–30.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$154.1M–$414.3M after Steam's cut $280.2M–$637.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
296k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryAction
Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.0M–9.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$66.5M–$178.7M after Steam's cut $120.8M–$274.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
244k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryRealistic
Apocalyptic Vibes
2023
Est. copies
≈ 8k–14k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$46k–$124k after Steam's cut $84k–$190k before Steam's cut
$19.99
337 reviews
Mostly Positive
Post-apocalypticAction
Insurgency: Sandstorm
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.4M–$89.9M after Steam's cut $60.8M–$138.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
133k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRealistic

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