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How many copies did Lonesome Village sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–10k
$33k–$89k after Steam's cut $60k–$137k before Steam's cut
from 243 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lonesome Village and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lonesome Village's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–5k
best case 408k (Hello Kitty Island Adventure)
Games like Lonesome Village

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–5k copies

≈ $5k–$28k after Steam's cut

from ~79 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Hello Kitty Island Adventure at ≈ 311k–505k copies, ≈ $3.4M–$9.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 4k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and Life Sim (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cozy + Open World, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Open World + Adventure + Colorful; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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159x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.