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How many copies did Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 52k–85k
$243k–$654k after Steam's cut $442k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–7.2M
best case 9.7M (Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord)
Games like Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty

A typical game among these

≈ 2.7M–7.2M copies

≈ $38.8M–$94.2M after Steam's cut

from ~146k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is War (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord at ≈ 7.4M–12.0M copies, ≈ $101.7M–$273.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 45k reviews in their first month; the range was 8k to 200k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share War (4 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Medieval + Open World, priced around $50.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord
2022
Est. copies
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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SteamSpy 500k–1M
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StrategyCity Builder
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Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Free to PlayWorld War II
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Free to PlayNaval Combat
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2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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≈ 3.7M–6.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$49.99
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ShooterRealistic

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