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How many copies did Sumerian Six sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 32k–52k
$262k–$703k after Steam's cut $476k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sumerian Six and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sumerian Six's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.3M–3.2M
best case 8.0M (ULTRAKILL)
Games like Sumerian Six

A typical game among these

≈ 2.3M–3.2M copies

≈ $15.7M–$43.6M after Steam's cut

from ~70k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Sandbox (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: ULTRAKILL at ≈ 6.1M–9.9M copies, ≈ $50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 19k reviews in their first month; the range was 115 to 55k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (3 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Racing, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stumble Guys
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
139k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut $38.3M–$87.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
154k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSimulation
Planet Coaster
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$37.2M–$100.0M after Steam's cut $67.6M–$153.8M before Steam's cut
$44.99
72k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$19.1M–$51.4M after Steam's cut $34.8M–$79.1M before Steam's cut
$39.99
70k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorSingleplayer
PowerWash Simulator
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.0M–$27.0M after Steam's cut $18.3M–$41.6M before Steam's cut
$24.99
59k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CasualRelaxing
ULTRAKILL
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.1M–9.9M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.2M–$134.8M after Steam's cut $91.2M–$207.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
245k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Boomer ShooterFast-Paced
Minion Masters
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
65k reviews
Very Positive
PvETrading Card Game
A Dance of Fire and Ice
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.0M–$10.7M after Steam's cut $7.2M–$16.5M before Steam's cut
$5.99
84k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic

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