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How many copies did Chionophile sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–9k
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
from 213 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chionophile and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chionophile's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 156k–235k
best case 425k (Yume Nikki)
Games like Chionophile

A typical game among these

≈ 156k–235k copies

≈ $454k–$1.4M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Yume Nikki at ≈ 324k–526k copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 633 reviews in their first month; the range was 410 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Walking Simulator (6 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with RPGMaker + Psychological Horror.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2025, and 2 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dear Esther
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 152k–247k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
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THE LONGING
2020
Est. copies
≈ 185k–301k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$764k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Point & ClickWalking Simulator
1000xRESIST
2024
Est. copies
≈ 175k–284k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$962k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Female ProtagonistThriller
Yume Nikki
2018
Est. copies
≈ 324k–526k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
11k reviews
Very Positive
IndieFree to Play
PLAYNE : The Meditation Game
2020
Est. copies
≈ 30k–49k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$125k–$335k after Steam's cut $227k–$515k before Steam's cut
$14.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
RelaxingSingleplayer
Proteus
2013
Est. copies
≈ 177k–288k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$487k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $886k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
ExplorationWalking Simulator
KARMA: The Dark World
2025
Est. copies
≈ 113k–184k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$779k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Thirty Flights of Loving
2012
Est. copies
≈ 121k–196k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$166k–$445k after Steam's cut $301k–$685k before Steam's cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Mixed
First-PersonExperimental

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.