How much revenue did Dear Esther make?

Dear Esther is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How many copies did Dear Esther sell?

Q: How many copies did Dear Esther sell?

152k to 247k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 152k–247k; from 6k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dear Esther and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dear Esther's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.6M–4.8M

best case 23.0M (No Man's Sky)

Games like Dear Esther

A typical game among these

≈ 3.6M–4.8M copies

≈ $22.2M–$41.2M after Steam's cut

from ~76k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.5M–28.5M copies, ≈ $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Exploration (5 of 8) and First-Person (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Space + Procedural Generation + Open World; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
INSIDE 2016	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	76k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
SOMA 2015	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.4M–$57.4M after Steam's cut $38.8M–$88.3M before Steam's cut	$29.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Horror Psychological Horror
The Long Dark 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–6.9M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$97.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	124k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
The Stanley Parable 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	46k reviews Very Positive	ComedyNarration
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.2M–6.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	100k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–3.0M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAtmospheric
GRIS 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	96k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	BeautifulAtmospheric
No Man's Sky 2016	Est. copies ≈ 17.5M–28.5M 5.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	422k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft