How much revenue did GRIS make?

$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did GRIS sell?

Q: How many copies did GRIS sell?

2.9M to 4.8M copies, based on its 96k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2.9M–4.8M; $12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut; from 96k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid GRIS and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GRIS's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–9.3M

best case 34.9M (Red Dead Redemption 2)

Games like GRIS

A typical game among these

≈ 4.4M–9.3M copies

≈ $86.9M–$138.4M after Steam's cut

from ~146k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Red Dead Redemption 2 at ≈ 26.6M–43.2M copies, ≈ $438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 25k reviews in their first month; the range was 8k to 30k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (7 of 8) and First-Person (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Western + Realistic + Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $59.0M–$158.6M after Steam's cut $107.3M–$244.0M before Steam's cut	$59.99	144k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldSuperhero
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 26.6M–43.2M 6.3x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut $797.0M–$1813.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	923k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldStory Rich
Detroit: Become Human 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.6M–10.7M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut $131.1M–$298.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	264k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Choices MatterStory Rich
Ori and the Will of the Wisps 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	147k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	BeautifulMetroidvania
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.2M–5.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	128k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAdventure
Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019	Est. copies ≈ 7.6M–12.3M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $83.3M–$223.9M after Steam's cut $151.4M–$344.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	263k reviews Very Positive	Great SoundtrackFPS
Half-Life: Alyx 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	106k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	VRFPS
BioShock Infinite 2013	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $76.0M–$204.4M after Steam's cut $138.2M–$314.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	146k reviews Very Positive	FPS Story Rich