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How many copies did Brain off sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 570–927
$782–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
from 23 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Brain off and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Brain off's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.2M–7.6M
best case 78.3M (Euro Truck Simulator 2)
Games like Brain off

A typical game among these

≈ 5.2M–7.6M copies

≈ $61.0M–$99.5M after Steam's cut

from ~150k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Euro Truck Simulator 2 at ≈ 59.7M–97.0M copies, ≈ $328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 43k reviews in their first month; the range was 30k to 129k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (3 of 8) and Exploration (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Simulation + Moddable; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
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$19.99
429k reviews
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Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.0M–$158.6M after Steam's cut $107.3M–$244.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
144k reviews
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Open WorldSuperhero
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
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Pixel GraphicsCasual
Euro Truck Simulator 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 59.7M–97.0M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
944k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
Very Positive
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$52.3M–$140.6M after Steam's cut $95.1M–$216.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
156k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Castle Crashers®
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.9M–14.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.7M–$98.7M after Steam's cut $66.8M–$151.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2DOnline Co-Op

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