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How many copies did Class of '09 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 226k–368k
$622k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.6M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Class of '09 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Class of '09's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 103k–440k
best case 1.9M (The Henry Stickmin Collection)
Games like Class of '09

A typical game among these

≈ 103k–440k copies

≈ $450k–$2.6M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Henry Stickmin Collection at ≈ 1.5M–2.4M copies, ≈ $6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 21 to 15k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Comedy (8 of 8) and Choices Matter (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Multiple Endings + Choose Your Own Adventure, priced around $15.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tales from the Borderlands
2021
Est. copies
≈ 486k–790k
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.2M after Steam's cut $4.9M–$11.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
ComedyAdventure
Class of '09: The Re-Up
2023
Est. copies
≈ 119k–193k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$489k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $890k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelFemale Protagonist
Monster Prom 3: Monster Roadtrip
2022
Est. copies
≈ 82k–134k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$271k–$729k after Steam's cut $493k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$11.99
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelLGBTQ+
Shadows Over Loathing
2022
Est. copies
≈ 83k–134k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$523k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $951k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$22.99
3k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureRPG
Tales from Toyotoki: Arrival of the Witch (The witch of the Ihanashi)
2022
Est. copies
≈ 23k–38k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$161k–$434k after Steam's cut $293k–$667k before Steam's cut
$24.98
947 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
The Henry Stickmin Collection
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
60k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FunnyMultiple Endings
Reventure
2019
Est. copies
≈ 285k–463k
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$966k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$12.34
10k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureIndie
TYRONE vs COPS
2022
Est. copies
≈ 68k–110k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$18k–$50k after Steam's cut $34k–$76k before Steam's cut
$0.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
AmericaMemes

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.