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How many copies did Marfusha:Sentinel Girls sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 80k–130k
$175k–$472k after Steam's cut $319k–$726k before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Marfusha:Sentinel Girls and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Marfusha:Sentinel Girls 's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 63k–90k
best case 1.3M (HoloCure - Save the Fans!)
Games like Marfusha:Sentinel Girls

A typical game among these

≈ 63k–90k copies

≈ $269k–$546k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: HoloCure - Save the Fans! at ≈ 1.0M–1.6M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 333 to 16k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (6 of 8) and Anime (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Anime, priced around $8. The breakout hits carry Mature + Gothic + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Est. copies
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SteamSpy under 20k
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2.4x vs typical
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HoloCure - Save the Fans!
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18x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.