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How many copies did Lighthouse Keeper sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 10k–17k
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $8k–$18k before Steam's cut
from 420 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lighthouse Keeper and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lighthouse Keeper's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 34k–104k
best case 359k (Visage)
Games like Lighthouse Keeper

A typical game among these

≈ 34k–104k copies

≈ $29k–$575k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Visage at ≈ 274k–445k copies, ≈ $2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 162 reviews in their first month; the range was 12 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (8 of 8) and Survival Horror (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Psychological Horror, priced around $35.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Visage
2020
Est. copies
≈ 274k–445k
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before Steam's cut
$34.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
The Grounding
2020
Est. copies
≈ 17k–27k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$57k before Steam's cut
$2.99
675 reviews
Very Positive
The Confession
2020
Est. copies
≈ 25k–41k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$57k before Steam's cut
$1.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationDark Humor
Gynophobia
2015
Est. copies
≈ 38k–62k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$21k–$56k after Steam's cut $38k–$86k before Steam's cut
$1.99
782 reviews
Mixed
Minds Eyes
2016
Est. copies
≈ 76k–124k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Mixed
HorrorFree to Play
At Dead Of Night
2020
Est. copies
≈ 89k–145k
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$391k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $711k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$15.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Enter The Backrooms
2021
Est. copies
≈ 26k–43k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$72k–$195k after Steam's cut $132k–$300k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Evil Inside - Prologue
2021
Est. copies
≈ 26k–42k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1k reviews
Mixed
HorrorMultiplayer

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