How many copies did TheDawn sell?

213k to 346k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did TheDawn make?

TheDawn is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is TheDawn?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 213k–346k; from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid TheDawn and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including TheDawn's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–12.6M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like TheDawn

A typical game among these

≈ 1.5M–12.6M copies

≈ $63.7M–$148.2M after Steam's cut

from ~180k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Survival (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 52k reviews in their first month; the range was 55 to 469k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Survival (4 of 8) and Battle Royale (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2026, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Z1 Battle Royale 2018	Est. copies ≈ 6.2M–10.0M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	202k reviews Mixed	SurvivalMassively Multiplayer
POLYGON 2020	Est. copies ≈ 918k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	37k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayFPS
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 16x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
World of Warships 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5.4M–8.8M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	157k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayNaval Combat
Palworld 2026	Est. copies ≈ 12.2M–19.8M 2.7x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue $100.5M–$270.1M after Steam's cut $182.7M–$415.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	491k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldSurvival
CRSED: Cuisine Royale 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–1.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	39k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleFree to Play
Risk of Rain 2 2020	Est. copies ≈ 8.8M–14.2M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	353k reviews Very Positive	Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
Senren＊Banka 2020	Est. copies ≈ 923k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $8.9M–$23.9M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.7M before Steam's cut	$34.99	37k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelNSFW