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How many copies did ZEPHON sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 48k–78k
$530k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $963k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid ZEPHON and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including ZEPHON's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 239k–1.2M
best case 17.5M (Sid Meier's Civilization® V)
Games like ZEPHON

A typical game among these

≈ 239k–1.2M copies

≈ $3.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier's Civilization® V at ≈ 13.3M–21.7M copies, ≈ $110.0M–$295.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 4X (8 of 8) and Turn-Based (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Turn-Based, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Addictive + Historical + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Age of Wonders: Planetfall
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Est. copies
≈ 193k–313k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.3M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.6M before Steam's cut
$29.99
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Sid Meier's Civilization® V
2010
Est. copies
≈ 13.3M–21.7M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
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$29.99
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2014
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≈ 1.3M–2.1M
1.7x vs typical
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$39.99
23k reviews
Mixed
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Est. copies
≈ 745k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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StrategySimulation

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