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How many copies did Recipe for Disaster sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 18k–29k
$75k–$200k after Steam's cut $136k–$308k before Steam's cut
from 729 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Recipe for Disaster and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Recipe for Disaster's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 328k–660k
best case 886k (PlateUp!)
Games like Recipe for Disaster

A typical game among these

≈ 328k–660k copies

≈ $930k–$3.9M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: PlateUp! at ≈ 675k–1.1M copies, ≈ $3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Cooking (3 of 3) and Management (3 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Management, priced around $20.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Good Pizza, Great Pizza - Cooking Simulator Game
2023
Est. copies
≈ 168k–274k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$463k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $841k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
FunnyManagement
Papa's Freezeria Deluxe
2023
Est. copies
≈ 331k–538k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$546k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $992k–$2.3M before Steam's cut
$5.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CookingTime Management
PlateUp!
2022
Est. copies
≈ 675k–1.1M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
27k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.