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How many copies did Papa's Freezeria Deluxe sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 331k–538k
$546k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $992k–$2.3M before Steam's cut
from 13k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Papa's Freezeria Deluxe and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Papa's Freezeria Deluxe's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 60k–193k
best case 1.1M (Touhou Mystia's Izakaya)
Games like Papa's Freezeria Deluxe

A typical game among these

≈ 60k–193k copies

≈ $253k–$558k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Touhou Mystia's Izakaya at ≈ 815k–1.3M copies, ≈ $1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 252 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Cooking (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Time Management, priced around $6. The breakout hits carry Pixel Graphics + Faith + Anime; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Coffee Caravan
2024
Est. copies
≈ 37k–60k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$122k–$329k after Steam's cut $222k–$506k before Steam's cut
$11.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementCooking
Dog Brew
2024
Est. copies
≈ 40k–65k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$39k–$104k after Steam's cut $70k–$160k before Steam's cut
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Bakery Simulator
2022
Est. copies
≈ 61k–99k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$267k–$718k after Steam's cut $486k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$15.99
2k reviews
Mixed
SimulationTime Management
Ravenous Devils
2022
Est. copies
≈ 246k–400k
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$338k–$908k after Steam's cut $614k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$4.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementCooking
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya
2021
Est. copies
≈ 815k–1.3M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.6M before Steam's cut
$5.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Papa's Pizzeria Deluxe
2024
Est. copies
≈ 93k–150k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$152k–$410k after Steam's cut $277k–$631k before Steam's cut
$5.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CookingSimulation
Lemon Cake
2021
Est. copies
≈ 51k–83k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$212k–$569k after Steam's cut $385k–$876k before Steam's cut
$14.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationCasual
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator
2026
Est. copies
≈ 202k–327k
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$997k–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.1M before Steam's cut
$17.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessMultiplayer

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.