How much revenue did Lemon Cake make?

$212k–$569k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Lemon Cake sell?

Q: How many copies did Lemon Cake sell?

51k to 83k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 51k–83k; $212k–$569k after Steam's cut $385k–$876k before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lemon Cake and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lemon Cake's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–3.0M

best case 5.3M (DAVE THE DIVER)

Games like Lemon Cake

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–3.0M copies

≈ $14.3M–$27.8M after Steam's cut

from ~68k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: DAVE THE DIVER at ≈ 4.0M–6.6M copies, ≈ $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 44k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Farming Sim (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Management + Exploration, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
DAVE THE DIVER 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.6M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	163k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsCasual
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	45k reviews Very Positive	CraftingSingleplayer
Farming Simulator 17 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.5M–$12.0M after Steam's cut $8.1M–$18.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	26k reviews Very Positive	Farming Sim Simulation
Farming Simulator 25 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	59k reviews Very Positive	Simulation Farming Sim
Manor Lords 2024	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $25.3M–$68.1M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	93k reviews Very Positive	StrategyCity Builder
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.3M–$22.3M after Steam's cut $15.1M–$34.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	49k reviews Mostly Positive	SimulationMultiplayer
Farming Simulator 19 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $11.5M–$30.9M after Steam's cut $20.9M–$47.5M before Steam's cut	$17.99	76k reviews Very Positive	Simulation Farming Sim
Farming Simulator 22 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.3M–3.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $12.7M–$34.1M after Steam's cut $23.1M–$52.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	93k reviews Very Positive	Simulation Farming Sim