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How big is Night in Riverager?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 6k–10k
from 236 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Night in Riverager and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Night in Riverager's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 520k–861k
best case 5.3M (Little Nightmares)
Games like Night in Riverager

A typical game among these

≈ 520k–861k copies

≈ $1.3M–$4.3M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Dark (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Little Nightmares at ≈ 4.0M–6.5M copies, ≈ $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Dark (4 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2.5D + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $27. The breakout hits carry Horror; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
9.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
Oxenfree
2016
Est. copies
≈ 504k–820k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichChoices Matter
Little Nightmares II
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.3M after Steam's cut $21.8M–$49.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAdventure
Seen
2019
Est. copies
≈ 288k–467k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$78k–$210k after Steam's cut $142k–$324k before Steam's cut
$0.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessIndie
My Singing Monsters
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
50k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorSimulation
Mortal Kombat 1
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$16.9M–$45.5M after Steam's cut $30.8M–$70.0M before Steam's cut
$49.99
50k reviews
Mostly Positive
FightingAction
Deadlight
2012
Est. copies
≈ 808k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$9.0M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
13k reviews
Mostly Positive
ZombiesPlatformer

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