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How many copies did Magellania sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 11k–17k
$29k–$78k after Steam's cut $53k–$120k before Steam's cut
from 426 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Magellania and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Magellania's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3k–4k
best case 82k (秦殇 (Prince of Qin))
Games like Magellania

A typical game among these

≈ 3k–4k copies

≈ $9k–$12k after Steam's cut

from ~114 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: 秦殇 (Prince of Qin) at ≈ 63k–102k copies, ≈ $17k–$46k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 97 reviews in their first month; the range was 23 to 1k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action RPG (6 of 8) and Party-Based RPG (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with CRPG + Isometric, priced around $17. The breakout hits carry CRPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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