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How many copies did Chaos Entropy sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
from 71 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chaos Entropy and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chaos Entropy's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 152k–202k
best case 251k (Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition)
Games like Chaos Entropy

A typical game among these

≈ 152k–202k copies

≈ $2.9M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition at ≈ 191k–311k copies, ≈ $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 331 reviews in their first month; the range was 150 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Party-Based RPG (5 of 8) and JRPG (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Fantasy + Combat, priced around $30.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.6x vs typical
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