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How big is Arcadegeddon?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 25k–41k
from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Arcadegeddon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Arcadegeddon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–3k
best case 48k (Vellum)
Games like Arcadegeddon

A typical game among these

≈ 1k–3k copies

≈ $1k–$9k after Steam's cut

from ~69 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Vellum at ≈ 37k–60k copies, ≈ $201k–$542k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 61 reviews in their first month; the range was 19 to 851.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-lite (5 of 8) and Third-Person Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Third-Person Shooter, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Online Co-Op + Fantasy + 3D; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2019 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Vellum
2025
Est. copies
≈ 37k–60k
21x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$201k–$542k after Steam's cut $366k–$833k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeThird-Person Shooter
Iron Jaw
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
74 reviews
Mixed
Action RoguelikeHero Shooter
Hovership Havoc
2019
Est. copies
≈ 922–1k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$5.99
32 reviews
Mostly Positive
B-12
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
44 reviews
Mostly Positive
ActionIndie
YUKI Space Ranger
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$5k–$13k after Steam's cut $9k–$19k before Steam's cut
$9.99
69 reviews
Very Positive
ArcadeRogue-lite
Trianga's Project: Battle Splash 2.0
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$783–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$0.99
116 reviews
Very Positive
Arena ShooterHero Shooter
Motordoom
2024
Est. copies
≈ 5k–7k
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$17k–$47k after Steam's cut $32k–$72k before Steam's cut
$13.99
182 reviews
Very Positive
SkateboardingBMX
X-teroids
2024
Est. copies
≈ 918–1k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$250–$671 after Steam's cut $454–$1k before Steam's cut
$0.99
37 reviews
Positive
CasualAction

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