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How big is flaming/million?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 248–403
from 10 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid flaming/million and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including flaming/million's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 315k–476k
best case 669k (BONELAB)
Games like flaming/million

A typical game among these

≈ 315k–476k copies

≈ $1.2M–$4.1M after Steam's cut

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Visual Novel (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: BONELAB at ≈ 509k–828k copies, ≈ $5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 636 reviews in their first month; the range was 100 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (4 of 8) and LGBTQ+ (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Physics, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

THE LONGING
2020
Est. copies
≈ 185k–301k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$764k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Point & ClickWalking Simulator
Coffee Talk
2020
Est. copies
≈ 314k–510k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut
$12.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
ConversationPixel Graphics
BONELAB
2022
Est. copies
≈ 509k–828k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics
Kind Words (lo fi chill beats to write to)
2019
Est. copies
≈ 258k–420k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$355k–$953k after Steam's cut $645k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
EmotionalRelaxing
Revue Starlight El Dorado
2024
Est. copies
≈ 25k–40k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$204k–$549k after Steam's cut $372k–$845k before Steam's cut
$29.99
999 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAdventure
A Mortician's Tale
2017
Est. copies
≈ 49k–80k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$136k–$364k after Steam's cut $246k–$561k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualIndie
MetaWare High School (Demo)
2020
Est. copies
≈ 17k–28k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
699 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelPhilosophical
Tunnet
2023
Est. copies
≈ 18k–30k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$30k–$81k after Steam's cut $55k–$124k before Steam's cut
$5.99
736 reviews
Very Positive
LogicExploration

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