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How big is Sixth Extinction?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 446–725
from 18 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sixth Extinction and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sixth Extinction's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 574k–1.2M
best case 2.4M (What Remains of Edith Finch)
Games like Sixth Extinction

A typical game among these

≈ 574k–1.2M copies

≈ $3.8M–$6.5M after Steam's cut

from ~22k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: What Remains of Edith Finch at ≈ 1.8M–3.0M copies, ≈ $10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 515 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (5 of 8) and Puzzle (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Superliminal
2020
Est. copies
≈ 848k–1.4M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleFirst-Person
Hue
2016
Est. copies
≈ 474k–770k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
IndiePuzzle
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
Bugsnax
2022
Est. copies
≈ 237k–385k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Creature CollectorAdventure
The Last Campfire
2021
Est. copies
≈ 516k–839k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleAdventure
The Beginner's Guide
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension
2020
Est. copies
≈ 648k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
$12.99
26k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndieAdventure
Viewfinder
2023
Est. copies
≈ 330k–536k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPuzzle

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