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How many copies did Bard Harder! sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–6k
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$8k before Steam's cut
from 137 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Bard Harder! and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Bard Harder!'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 204k–389k
best case 726k (The NOexistenceN of you AND me)
Games like Bard Harder!

A typical game among these

≈ 204k–389k copies

≈ $1.4M–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The NOexistenceN of you AND me at ≈ 553k–898k copies, ≈ $303k–$813k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 247 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Visual Novel (8 of 8) and Story Rich (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Psychological Horror, priced around $2. The breakout hits carry Psychological Horror + Interactive Fiction + Psychological; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BAD END THEATER
2021
Est. copies
≈ 250k–406k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$687k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
$9.99
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Multiple EndingsVisual Novel
WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT
2023
Est. copies
≈ 216k–351k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.4M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
Fate/stay night REMASTERED
2024
Est. copies
≈ 122k–199k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
5k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
7 Days to End with You
2022
Est. copies
≈ 86k–140k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$190k–$511k after Steam's cut $345k–$786k before Steam's cut
$7.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Lucy -The Eternity She Wished For-
2016
Est. copies
≈ 343k–558k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$944k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelAnime
Long Live The Queen
2013
Est. copies
≈ 453k–736k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelPolitical Sim
WILL: A Wonderful World / WILL:美好世界
2017
Est. copies
≈ 189k–307k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$778k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
The NOexistenceN of you AND me
2024
Est. copies
≈ 553k–898k
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$303k–$813k after Steam's cut $550k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$1.99
22k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.