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How many copies did Hyper Light Breaker sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 99k–161k
$815k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hyper Light Breaker and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hyper Light Breaker's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.0M–6.2M
best case 12.2M (Hogwarts Legacy)
Games like Hyper Light Breaker

A typical game among these

≈ 2.0M–6.2M copies

≈ $51.7M–$142.6M after Steam's cut

from ~107k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hogwarts Legacy at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies, ≈ $153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 48k reviews in their first month; the range was 5k to 171k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (8 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Magic + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered
2025
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.0M–$64.5M after Steam's cut $43.6M–$99.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
70k reviews
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RPGOpen World
Dragon's Dogma 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$32.1M–$86.3M after Steam's cut $58.3M–$132.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
118k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldRPG
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$39.8M–$106.9M after Steam's cut $72.3M–$164.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Starfield
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.8M–$160.9M after Steam's cut $108.8M–$247.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
175k reviews
Mixed
SpaceSingleplayer
Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$153.2M–$412.0M after Steam's cut $278.6M–$633.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
375k reviews
Very Positive
MagicOpen World
Sonic Frontiers
2022
Est. copies
≈ 709k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackOpen World
The Outer Worlds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 702k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
28k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction RPG

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