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How many copies did Sword and Fairy 3 Ex sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 14k–23k
$31k–$82k after Steam's cut $55k–$126k before Steam's cut
from 560 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sword and Fairy 3 Ex and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sword and Fairy 3 Ex's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 379k–2.3M
best case 4.6M (Persona 5 Royal)
Games like Sword and Fairy 3 Ex

A typical game among these

≈ 379k–2.3M copies

≈ $2.8M–$16.9M after Steam's cut

from ~22k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Persona 5 Royal at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (6 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with JRPG + Story Rich, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Volcano Princess
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.3M before Steam's cut
$10.99
49k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Life SimMultiple Endings
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 498k–809k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$8.2M–$22.1M after Steam's cut $14.9M–$34.0M before Steam's cut
$59.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
RPGJRPG
Persona 4 Golden
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
4.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
88k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
JRPGGreat Soundtrack
Persona 3 Portable
2023
Est. copies
≈ 143k–233k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$789k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
Persona 5 Royal
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
6.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
141k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon)
2018
Est. copies
≈ 338k–548k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut
$17.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
RPGMartial Arts
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ II - The Sith Lords™
2012
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.2M–$18.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
26k reviews
Very Positive
Encased: A Sci-Fi Post-Apocalyptic RPG
2021
Est. copies
≈ 119k–194k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$985k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
5k reviews
Mostly Positive
CRPGTurn-Based Combat

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