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How many copies did Vaccine Delivery Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 397–645
$545–$1k after Steam's cut $991–$2k before Steam's cut
from 16 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Vaccine Delivery Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including Vaccine Delivery Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 12.3M–46.1M
best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)
Games like Vaccine Delivery Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 12.3M–46.1M copies

≈ $46.8M–$99.2M after Steam's cut

from ~321k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 7 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Physics (4 of 7) and Sandbox (4 of 7).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut $38.3M–$87.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
154k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSimulation
Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
321k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.7M–80.7M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
786k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.