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How many copies did Incredibox sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 148k–241k
$203k–$547k after Steam's cut $370k–$841k before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Incredibox and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Incredibox's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–31k
best case 138k (Spin Rhythm XD)
Games like Incredibox

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–31k copies

≈ $27k–$215k after Steam's cut

from ~379 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Spin Rhythm XD at ≈ 105k–171k copies, ≈ $578k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 234 reviews in their first month; the range was 30 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Audio Production (7 of 8) and Music (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rhythm + Music, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tribe XR | DJ Academy
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10k–17k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
359 reviews
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VRMusic
Spin Rhythm XD
2023
Est. copies
≈ 105k–171k
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$578k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RhythmMusic
FUSER™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 36k–58k
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1k reviews
Very Positive
MusicCasual
DrumBeats VR
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$15k–$40k after Steam's cut $27k–$61k before Steam's cut
$14.99
145 reviews
Mixed
RhythmAudio Production
SynthVR
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$10k–$27k after Steam's cut $19k–$42k before Steam's cut
$24.99
60 reviews
Very Positive
Audio ProductionUtilities
Rytmik Ultimate
2015
Est. copies
≈ 19k–32k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$96k–$258k after Steam's cut $175k–$397k before Steam's cut
$17.99
398 reviews
Very Positive
Audio ProductionUtilities
Robo Maestro
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
102 reviews
Very Positive
MusicProcedural Generation
Paradiddle
2022
Est. copies
≈ 17k–28k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$117k–$314k after Steam's cut $212k–$483k before Steam's cut
$24.99
685 reviews
Very Positive
VRMusic

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.