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How many copies did FAR: Changing Tides sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 142k–230k
$778k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid FAR: Changing Tides and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including FAR: Changing Tides's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.2M–3.0M
best case 3.6M (The Last of Us™ Part I)
Games like FAR: Changing Tides

A typical game among these

≈ 2.2M–3.0M copies

≈ $41.2M–$69.6M after Steam's cut

from ~78k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Post-apocalyptic (2 of 4), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Last of Us™ Part I at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $45.1M–$121.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 27k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 46k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Post-apocalyptic (2 of 4) and Shooter (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $60.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2023. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy 1M–2M
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