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How many copies did Chrysalis sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$8k–$22k after Steam's cut $15k–$34k before Steam's cut
from 120 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Chrysalis and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chrysalis's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 125k–182k
best case 1.0M (Dungeon of the ENDLESS™)
Games like Chrysalis

A typical game among these

≈ 125k–182k copies

≈ $725k–$1.1M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Dungeon of the ENDLESS™ at ≈ 787k–1.3M copies, ≈ $2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rogue-like (8 of 8) and Tower Defense (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tower Defense + Rogue-like, priced around $9. The breakout hits carry Pixel Graphics + Mining + Difficult; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.