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How many copies did Leaf on Wind sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 471–766
$258–$694 after Steam's cut $469–$1k before Steam's cut
from 19 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Leaf on Wind and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Leaf on Wind's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 282k–298k
best case 288k (Terra Nil)
Games like Leaf on Wind

A typical game among these

≈ 282k–298k copies

≈ $2.2M–$2.7M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Terra Nil at ≈ 219k–356k copies, ≈ $1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 2k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Nature (5 of 8) and Puzzle (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Nature + Puzzle, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Terra Nil
2023
Est. copies
≈ 219k–356k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
NatureStrategy
Shelter
2013
Est. copies
≈ 235k–382k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$968k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureSurvival
Shelter 2
2015
Est. copies
≈ 211k–343k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$6.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Aruna
2021
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1 reviews
1 user reviews
2D PlatformerRelaxing
Escape Purgatory
2022
Est. copies
≈ 248–403
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$681–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$9.99
10 reviews
Positive
Early AccessAction
Altero
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
$6.99
46 reviews
Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerSide Scroller
Pin Zhi
2024
Est. copies
≈ 99–161
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$54–$146 after Steam's cut $99–$224 before Steam's cut
$1.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
Adventure2D Platformer
Esau's World
2025
Est. copies
≈ 50–81
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$206–$553 after Steam's cut $375–$850 before Steam's cut
$14.99
2 reviews
2 user reviews
Puzzle-PlatformerColorful

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.