How much revenue did Bread & Fred make?

$537k–$1.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Bread & Fred sell?

Q: How many copies did Bread & Fred sell?

130k to 212k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 130k–212k; $537k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $976k–$2.2M before Steam's cut; from 5k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Bread & Fred and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Bread & Fred's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.2M–5.0M

best case 15.2M (Fall Guys)

Games like Bread & Fred

A typical game among these

≈ 3.2M–5.0M copies

≈ $18.5M–$30.5M after Steam's cut

from ~85k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Fall Guys at ≈ 11.6M–18.9M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 42k reviews in their first month; the range was 22k to 144k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Co-op (3 of 8) and Party Game (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Party Game + Battle Royale. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + Family Friendly + Massively Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Party Animals 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	79k reviews Mostly Positive	MultiplayerFunny
Overcooked! 2 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $17.7M–$47.5M after Steam's cut $32.1M–$73.1M before Steam's cut	$24.99	85k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerOnline Co-Op
Enter the Gungeon 2016	Est. copies ≈ 3.7M–6.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $15.4M–$41.5M after Steam's cut $28.1M–$63.9M before Steam's cut	$14.99	90k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Bullet HellAction Roguelike
Brotato 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut	$4.99	119k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Ultimate Chicken Horse 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	54k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MultiplayerParty
Fall Guys 2020	Est. copies ≈ 11.6M–18.9M 5.5x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	468k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerParty Game
Castle Crashers® 2012	Est. copies ≈ 8.9M–14.5M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $36.7M–$98.7M after Steam's cut $66.8M–$151.9M before Steam's cut	$14.99	141k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	2DOnline Co-Op
Goat Simulator 2014	Est. copies ≈ 3.9M–6.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	70k reviews Very Positive	SimulationFunny