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How many copies did Cthulhu pub sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
from 47 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cthulhu pub and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cthulhu pub's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5k–20k
best case 17.5M (Sid Meier's Civilization® V)
Games like Cthulhu pub

A typical game among these

≈ 5k–20k copies

≈ $22k–$57k after Steam's cut

from ~185 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier's Civilization® V at ≈ 13.3M–21.7M copies, ≈ $110.0M–$295.6M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 402 reviews in their first month; the range was 33 to 9k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Replay Value (7 of 8) and Rogue-like (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based + Multiplayer + Historical; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2026, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Recon Control
2021
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$10k–$27k after Steam's cut $18k–$41k before Steam's cut
$9.99
146 reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based TacticsReplay Value
Sid Meier's Civilization® V
2010
Est. copies
≈ 13.3M–21.7M
1143x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$110.0M–$295.6M after Steam's cut $199.9M–$454.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
211k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Turn-Based StrategyStrategy
Caves of Qud
2024
Est. copies
≈ 316k–514k
69x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Procedural GenerationTurn-Based Combat
Coffee Noir - Business Detective Game
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
$8.99
87 reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategySimulation
Classic Card Games 3D
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$20k–$54k after Steam's cut $36k–$83k before Steam's cut
$19.99
120 reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualCard Game
Hero Generations
2015
Est. copies
≈ 11k–18k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$18k–$48k after Steam's cut $33k–$74k before Steam's cut
$5.99
223 reviews
Mixed
StrategyIndie
Rogue Voltage
2026
Est. copies
≈ 16k–26k
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$72k–$193k after Steam's cut $130k–$296k before Steam's cut
$15.99
657 reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessDeckbuilding
Auto Rogue
2025
Est. copies
≈ 18k–29k
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$35k–$93k after Steam's cut $63k–$143k before Steam's cut
$6.99
727 reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeProgramming

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