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How many copies did Minds Beneath Us sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 159k–259k
$876k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Minds Beneath Us and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Minds Beneath Us's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 537k–1.2M
best case 8.6M (Detroit: Become Human)
Games like Minds Beneath Us

A typical game among these

≈ 537k–1.2M copies

≈ $11.0M–$22.3M after Steam's cut

from ~25k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Detroit: Become Human at ≈ 6.6M–10.7M copies, ≈ $72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 722 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (8 of 8) and Choices Matter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choices Matter + Story Rich, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Futuristic + Robots + Multiple Endings; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Beyond: Two Souls
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.9M–$24.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureChoices Matter
Mass Effect 2 (2010 Edition)
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 385k–626k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Very Positive
RPGSci-fi
Quantum Break
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.2M–$38.3M after Steam's cut $25.9M–$58.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
ActionStory Rich
Life is Strange: True Colors
2021
Est. copies
≈ 419k–681k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.9M–$18.6M after Steam's cut $12.6M–$28.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
Tell Me Why
2020
Est. copies
≈ 400k–650k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
The Quarry
2022
Est. copies
≈ 627k–1.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$49.9M before Steam's cut
$69.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterMultiple Endings
Detroit: Become Human
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut $131.1M–$298.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
264k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
Heavy Rain
2020
Est. copies
≈ 788k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.7M after Steam's cut $7.9M–$17.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich

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