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How big is Deepest Sword?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 271k–441k
from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Deepest Sword and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Deepest Sword's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 530k–709k
best case 5.9M (Celeste)
Games like Deepest Sword

A typical game among these

≈ 530k–709k copies

≈ $4.1M–$9.4M after Steam's cut

from ~15k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 11k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 2D Platformer (5 of 8) and Platformer (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 2D Platformer, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Precision Platformer + 2D Platformer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Blasphemous 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 540k–878k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$18.0M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$44.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
CombatFantasy
Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 498k–809k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Metroidvania2D Platformer
The Messenger
2018
Est. copies
≈ 404k–656k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
RetroPlatformer
SANABI
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.6M–$12.4M after Steam's cut $8.4M–$19.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsStory Rich
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
9.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Super Meat Boy
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.2M–$27.5M after Steam's cut $18.6M–$42.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Neon Abyss
2020
Est. copies
≈ 586k–952k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.6M after Steam's cut $9.2M–$21.0M before Steam's cut
$31.49
24k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue Legacy 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 376k–611k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
ArcadeMetroidvania

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