How much revenue did Heat Death make?

$7k–$20k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Heat Death sell?

Q: How many copies did Heat Death sell?

2k to 3k copies, based on its 71 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2k–3k; $7k–$20k after Steam's cut $13k–$30k before Steam's cut; from 71 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Heat Death and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Heat Death's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 116k–284k

best case 749k (Monster Train)

Games like Heat Death

A typical game among these

≈ 116k–284k copies

≈ $580k–$2.4M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Monster Train at ≈ 570k–927k copies, ≈ $3.9M–$10.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 6k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Rogue-like (4 of 4) and Card Battler (3 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Card Battler + Rogue-lite, priced around $25.
When they shipped: 2 of the 4 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
LONESTAR 2025	Est. copies ≈ 61k–99k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $217k–$583k after Steam's cut $394k–$896k before Steam's cut	$12.99	2k reviews Very Positive	Rogue-likeStrategy
Monster Train 2020	Est. copies ≈ 570k–927k 5.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.5M after Steam's cut $7.1M–$16.2M before Steam's cut	$24.99	23k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Card BattlerRogue-lite
Alina of the Arena 2022	Est. copies ≈ 98k–160k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $406k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $738k–$1.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Roguelike Deckbuilder Rogue-like
Dice & Fold 2024	Est. copies ≈ 97k–158k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $347k–$934k after Steam's cut $631k–$1.4M before Steam's cut	$12.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Card BattlerDungeon Crawler