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How many copies did Dice & Fold sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 97k–158k
$347k–$934k after Steam's cut $631k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dice & Fold and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dice & Fold's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 103k–234k
best case 427k (Across the Obelisk)
Games like Dice & Fold

A typical game among these

≈ 103k–234k copies

≈ $872k–$2.1M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Across the Obelisk at ≈ 326k–529k copies, ≈ $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 6k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Card Battler (6 of 8) and Roguelike Deckbuilder (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rogue-like + Fantasy, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Across the Obelisk
2022
Est. copies
≈ 326k–529k
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeStrategy
Trials of Fire
2021
Est. copies
≈ 81k–131k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$445k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $809k–$1.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Card BattlerTurn-Based Tactics
Black Book
2021
Est. copies
≈ 168k–272k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Card BattlerTurn-Based Tactics
Knock on the Coffin Lid
2024
Est. copies
≈ 72k–117k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$496k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $903k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$24.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
FantasyDark Fantasy
HELLCARD
2024
Est. copies
≈ 116k–188k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$797k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Backpack Hero
2023
Est. copies
≈ 212k–344k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Replay ValueTurn-Based
LONESTAR
2025
Est. copies
≈ 61k–99k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$217k–$583k after Steam's cut $394k–$896k before Steam's cut
$12.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeStrategy
Deep Sky Derelicts
2018
Est. copies
≈ 88k–143k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$482k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $877k–$2.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive

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