How much revenue did Rogue Waters make?

$269k–$724k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Rogue Waters sell?

Q: How many copies did Rogue Waters sell?

33k to 53k copies, based on its 1k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 33k–53k; $269k–$724k after Steam's cut $489k–$1.1M before Steam's cut; from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Rogue Waters and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Rogue Waters's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 390k–1.1M

best case 1.4M (Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition)

Games like Rogue Waters

A typical game among these

≈ 390k–1.1M copies

≈ $4.0M–$7.3M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Fantasy (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition at ≈ 1.1M–1.8M copies, ≈ $6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 17k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Fantasy (4 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Action RPG + Third Person, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 2.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$25.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	SingleplayerAction RPG
Wildermyth 2021	Est. copies ≈ 454k–737k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut	$24.99	18k reviews Very Positive	Party-Based RPGChoices Matter
The Last Spell 2023	Est. copies ≈ 341k–555k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	14k reviews Very Positive	StrategySingleplayer
觅长生 2023	Est. copies ≈ 797k–1.3M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	32k reviews Very Positive	RPGOpen World
Backpack Hero 2023	Est. copies ≈ 212k–344k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	9k reviews Very Positive	Replay ValueTurn-Based
Battle Brothers 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.6M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.3M–$22.2M after Steam's cut $15.0M–$34.1M before Steam's cut	$29.99	29k reviews Very Positive	StrategyRPG
King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022	Est. copies ≈ 188k–305k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut	$44.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Tactical RPGTurn-Based Tactics
Across the Obelisk 2022	Est. copies ≈ 326k–529k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut	$19.99	13k reviews Very Positive	Rogue-likeStrategy