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How many copies did Water Physics Simulation sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–4k
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$25k before Steam's cut
from 98 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Water Physics Simulation and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Water Physics Simulation's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.3M–6.2M
best case 27.0M (BeamNG.drive)
Games like Water Physics Simulation

A typical game among these

≈ 3.3M–6.2M copies

≈ $22.0M–$92.5M after Steam's cut

from ~111k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: BeamNG.drive at ≈ 20.5M–33.4M copies, ≈ $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (8 of 8) and Physics (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Driving, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Space Engineers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
135k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSandbox
BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.0M–$56.6M after Steam's cut $38.3M–$87.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
154k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSimulation
Kerbal Space Program
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.2M–11.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
147k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SpaceSimulation
Universe Sandbox
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.0M–$35.0M after Steam's cut $23.6M–$53.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSpace
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
88k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerPhysics
Goat Simulator
2014
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
70k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationFunny
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.7M–$28.8M after Steam's cut $19.5M–$44.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationAutomobile Sim

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.