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How many copies did Lucky Tower Ultimate sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 61k–99k
$252k–$677k after Steam's cut $458k–$1.0M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lucky Tower Ultimate and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lucky Tower Ultimate's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 351k–911k
best case 33.8M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)
Games like Lucky Tower Ultimate

A typical game among these

≈ 351k–911k copies

≈ $2.3M–$8.5M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.8M–41.9M copies, ≈ $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (7 of 8) and Dungeon Crawler (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Great Soundtrack + Difficult + Indie; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Wizard of Legend
2018
Est. copies
≈ 641k–1.0M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$15.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikePixel Graphics
Moonlighter
2018
Est. copies
≈ 747k–1.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
Hack and SlashPixel Graphics
UnderMine
2020
Est. copies
≈ 245k–397k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Ember Knights
2023
Est. copies
≈ 175k–284k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$961k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
The Binding of Isaac
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$4.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Heroes of Hammerwatch
2018
Est. copies
≈ 290k–471k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$4.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-liteAction Roguelike
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
22x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Neon Abyss
2020
Est. copies
≈ 586k–952k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.6M after Steam's cut $9.2M–$21.0M before Steam's cut
$31.49
24k reviews
Very Positive

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