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How many copies did Always The Same Nightmare sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 149–242
$491–$1k after Steam's cut $893–$2k before Steam's cut
from 6 reviews (6 user reviews)
Only 6 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Always The Same Nightmare and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Always The Same Nightmare's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 540k–743k
best case 716k (Spelunky 2)
Games like Always The Same Nightmare

A typical game among these

≈ 540k–743k copies

≈ $3.4M–$5.0M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Platformer (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Spelunky 2 at ≈ 545k–886k copies, ≈ $3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 4k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (4 of 8) and Side Scroller (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Platformer + 2D Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Touhou Luna Nights
2019
Est. copies
≈ 432k–701k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$17.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaDifficult
Duck Paradox
2024
Est. copies
≈ 8k–13k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$22k–$60k after Steam's cut $41k–$92k before Steam's cut
$9.99
328 reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerShoot 'Em Up
Braid
2009
Est. copies
≈ 629k–1.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
Puzzle-PlatformerPuzzle
Spelunky 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 545k–886k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
Platformer2D Platformer
The Silent Age
2015
Est. copies
≈ 351k–571k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$965k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Point & ClickSide Scroller
Woute
2021
Est. copies
≈ 298–484
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$245–$658 after Steam's cut $446–$1k before Steam's cut
$2.99
12 reviews
Positive
Time ManipulationBullet Time
RADical ROACH: Infinity
2022
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$102–$275 after Steam's cut $185–$423 before Steam's cut
$4.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
Shoot 'Em UpAction
Agile firefighter
2022
Est. copies
≈ 422–685
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
$11.99
17 reviews
Mostly Positive
CasualSide Scroller

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