How much revenue did Duck Paradox make?

$22k–$60k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Duck Paradox sell?

Q: How many copies did Duck Paradox sell?

8k to 13k copies, based on its 328 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 8k–13k; $22k–$60k after Steam's cut $41k–$92k before Steam's cut; from 328 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Duck Paradox and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Duck Paradox's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–46k

best case 1.8M (FlatOut 2)

Games like Duck Paradox

A typical game among these

≈ 2k–46k copies

≈ $3k–$264k after Steam's cut

from ~129 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Bowling (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: FlatOut 2 at ≈ 1.4M–2.3M copies, ≈ $3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 18 reviews in their first month; the range was 3 to 459.

Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Bowling (4 of 8) and Sports (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Racing + Combat Racing, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Sparedevil 2024	Est. copies ≈ 4k–6k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $13k–$34k after Steam's cut $23k–$52k before Steam's cut	$11.99	154 reviews Very Positive	FPSAction
PewDiePie: Legend of the Brofist 2015	Est. copies ≈ 82k–134k 13x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $181k–$486k after Steam's cut $329k–$747k before Steam's cut	$7.99	2k reviews Very Positive	MemesPixel Graphics
All-In-One Sports VR 2023	Est. copies ≈ 19k–31k 6.0x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $105k–$283k after Steam's cut $191k–$435k before Steam's cut	$19.99	771 reviews Very Positive	VRSimulation
FlatOut 2 2006	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.3M 172x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$16.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	22k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	RacingCombat Racing
ImpossiBowl 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2k–3k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue Free	Free	78 reviews Very Positive	BowlingPrecision Platformer
Roxy Raccoon's Bowling Bash 2022	Est. copies ≈ 570–927 SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $782–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut	$4.99	23 reviews Positive	Bowling3D Platformer
Bocce Revolution 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1k–2k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before Steam's cut	$4.99	30 reviews Positive	Turn-Based TacticsPhysics
BandRoll 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3k–4k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut	$1.99	104 reviews Very Positive	Early AccessRhythm