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How many copies did Earthling's Undertaking sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25k–41k
$75k–$203k after Steam's cut $137k–$312k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Earthling's Undertaking and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Earthling's Undertaking's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 96k–126k
best case 7.3M (鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal)
Games like Earthling's Undertaking

A typical game among these

≈ 96k–126k copies

≈ $683k–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Choose Your Own Adventure (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal at ≈ 5.6M–9.1M copies, ≈ $30.6M–$82.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 197 to 208k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Choose Your Own Adventure (3 of 8) and Open World (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Management + Simulation, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Management + Tactical RPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Idling to Rule the Gods
2016
Est. copies
≈ 89k–144k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
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Free to PlayIndie
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal
2023
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
81x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.6M–$82.4M after Steam's cut $55.7M–$126.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
225k reviews
Mixed
ManagementSingleplayer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
68x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.8M–$254.9M after Steam's cut $172.4M–$392.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Niffelheim
2018
Est. copies
≈ 71k–115k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$390k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $710k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
MythologyCo-op
Werewolf: The Apocalypse — Heart of the Forest
2020
Est. copies
≈ 28k–46k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$116k–$311k after Steam's cut $210k–$478k before Steam's cut
$14.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
Stray Gods: The Roleplaying Musical
2023
Est. copies
≈ 98k–159k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$808k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Interactive FictionStory Rich
轮回修仙路
2023
Est. copies
≈ 79k–129k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$370k–$996k after Steam's cut $674k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$16.99
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Very Positive
RPGOpen World
《蜀山:初章》买断版
2022
Est. copies
≈ 148k–241k
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
6k reviews
Mostly Positive
Massively MultiplayerOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.