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How many copies did Alchemistry sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 670–1k
$920–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before Steam's cut
from 27 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alchemistry and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alchemistry's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 73k–166k
best case 511k (Learn to Fly 3)
Games like Alchemistry

A typical game among these

≈ 73k–166k copies

≈ $136k–$401k after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Learn to Fly 3 at ≈ 390k–633k copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 393 reviews in their first month; the range was 322 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (6 of 8) and Sandbox (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Physics + Simulation. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Physics + Flight; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 200k–500k
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$32k–$86k after Steam's cut $58k–$132k before Steam's cut
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The Howler
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2020
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SandboxSimulation
Last Call BBS
2022
Est. copies
≈ 40k–64k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
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$218k–$585k after Steam's cut $396k–$900k before Steam's cut
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2k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleRetro
Learn to Fly 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 390k–633k
5.3x vs typical
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Very Positive
Free to PlayCasual
Waveform
2012
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≈ 135k–220k
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$74k–$199k after Steam's cut $134k–$306k before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
IndiePuzzle
I, Zombie
2014
Est. copies
≈ 147k–239k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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$81k–$217k after Steam's cut $146k–$333k before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
StealthTop-Down
Rail Route
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Est. copies
≈ 65k–106k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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$449k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $817k–$1.9M before Steam's cut
$24.99
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