How many copies did Learn to Fly 3 sell?

390k to 633k copies, based on its 11k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Learn to Fly 3 make?

Learn to Fly 3 is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Learn to Fly 3?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 390k–633k; from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Learn to Fly 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Learn to Fly 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.8M–13.1M

best case 15.2M (Fall Guys)

Games like Learn to Fly 3

A typical game among these

≈ 4.8M–13.1M copies

≈ $46.8M–$95.8M after Steam's cut

from ~189k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Physics (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Fall Guys at ≈ 11.6M–18.9M copies.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 57k reviews in their first month; the range was 115 to 144k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Physics (4 of 8) and Sandbox (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Party Game + Battle Royale.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Stumble Guys 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	139k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayBattle Royale
Stick Fight: The Game 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–7.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.5M before Steam's cut	$4.99	125k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerFunny
Human Fall Flat 2016	Est. copies ≈ 9.5M–15.4M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	227k reviews Very Positive	Co-opFunny
People Playground 2019	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	321k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxGore
Fall Guys 2020	Est. copies ≈ 11.6M–18.9M 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	468k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerParty Game
BeamNG.drive 2015	Est. copies ≈ 20.5M–33.4M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	421k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationDriving
Crab Game 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3.7M–6.1M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	151k reviews Very Positive	Psychological HorrorMultiplayer
Teardown 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$75.0M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	136k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DestructionPhysics